Posts tagged Nokia

Predictions – for 2011 and beyond

6

OK, here are some big (and no so big) predictions for the next 12 months and beyond:

  1. Apple will release its 5th generation phone (iPhone 5, or 4s) in September.  Potentially more significant, it will also do is push the 3Gs as an entry level phone (or less likely, introduce an iPhone lite), with a far lower price point, and sell it outright (no contract).  This will be the nail in the coffin for Nokia et al, and mark the move of Apple into more ‘mainstream’ mobile phone market.
  2. Google+ WILL eventually be the major social networking platform.  It will be significantly large to be one of two (FaceBook being other other) by the end of 2011.  FaceBook will survive though.
  3. National will win the next election in New Zealand.  I actually predicted this in 2009, but wanted to restate it here.  Labour will get caned, but not as much as current polls say.  Even if National can govern alone (which will be close), they will invite others into a coalition.  Key is clever like that.
  4. Obama will (re)win the US Presidency in 2011.  It will get nasty.
  5. The NZ dollar will stay high (around 80c against the US $) for most of this year.  But drop back to 70-75c by late 2011/early 2012
  6. The US economy will crap itself in 2013.  Finally.  China will help.

The above predictions were written on 27th July 2011.

Update 4 August 2011: The 2011 Rugby World Cup final will be between Australia and NZ.  If NZ make it to the final, they will win it.  South Africa will bomb out early.

Black and White Version: My predictions for 2011 and beyond.  Who knows if I am right or not.  Time will tell!

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Tech companies – the round up

2

Another straight to the point, black and white post here.

My views on the current, and future prospects, of various tech companies.

Short Term Medium/Long Term (3-5 years)
Apple Excellent Excellent
Google Excellent Excellent
Microsoft Good Poor.
Nokia Average Poor
Rim (aka Blackberry) Good Poor Average
IBM Good Excellent Very Good
FaceBoook Good Good – Very Good
Twitter Average ??

I’ll give just brief further comments on the mobile device space:

  • I think Google’s OS (Android) will be the biggest by far in 5 years (sooner), with over 50% market share,
  • Apple will be the most profitable by far, and maintain the position as the biggest selling single phone of any supplier.
  • Microsoft and Nokia combined will have less market share in this space than Apple or Linux presently do in the PC space (less than 10% combined) – they are dead long term in this market.
  • Rim (blackberry) will maintain their market share for now (give or take a few %), but long term they will be a niche player.

I also think Microsoft will go after (ie battle) Google more than it will Apple.  It’s lost the war with Apple (or more to the point, they aren’t on the same battle field).  Microsoft have two main resources – CASH, and their huge user base.  Let’s see if they can do anything with that.  There is hope for Microsoft, because unlike Rim and Nokia, they have FAR wider base of products than just the mobile device space.  But that would involve a whole change for the company – and actually get innovative again.

Black and White Version: Many current market leaders (aka Google and Apple) will continue to be strong.  Others, like Microsoft are long term dead-ducks.

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