OK, here are some big (and no so big) predictions for the next 12 months and beyond:

  1. Apple will release its 5th generation phone (iPhone 5, or 4s) in September.  Potentially more significant, it will also do is push the 3Gs as an entry level phone (or less likely, introduce an iPhone lite), with a far lower price point, and sell it outright (no contract).  This will be the nail in the coffin for Nokia et al, and mark the move of Apple into more ‘mainstream’ mobile phone market.
  2. Google+ WILL eventually be the major social networking platform.  It will be significantly large to be one of two (FaceBook being other other) by the end of 2011.  FaceBook will survive though.
  3. National will win the next election in New Zealand.  I actually predicted this in 2009, but wanted to restate it here.  Labour will get caned, but not as much as current polls say.  Even if National can govern alone (which will be close), they will invite others into a coalition.  Key is clever like that.
  4. Obama will (re)win the US Presidency in 2011.  It will get nasty.
  5. The NZ dollar will stay high (around 80c against the US $) for most of this year.  But drop back to 70-75c by late 2011/early 2012
  6. The US economy will crap itself in 2013.  Finally.  China will help.

The above predictions were written on 27th July 2011.

Update 4 August 2011: The 2011 Rugby World Cup final will be between Australia and NZ.  If NZ make it to the final, they will win it.  South Africa will bomb out early.

Black and White Version: My predictions for 2011 and beyond.  Who knows if I am right or not.  Time will tell!

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