Predictions

Predictions – for 2011 and beyond

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OK, here are some big (and no so big) predictions for the next 12 months and beyond:

  1. Apple will release its 5th generation phone (iPhone 5, or 4s) in September.  Potentially more significant, it will also do is push the 3Gs as an entry level phone (or less likely, introduce an iPhone lite), with a far lower price point, and sell it outright (no contract).  This will be the nail in the coffin for Nokia et al, and mark the move of Apple into more ‘mainstream’ mobile phone market.
  2. Google+ WILL eventually be the major social networking platform.  It will be significantly large to be one of two (FaceBook being other other) by the end of 2011.  FaceBook will survive though.
  3. National will win the next election in New Zealand.  I actually predicted this in 2009, but wanted to restate it here.  Labour will get caned, but not as much as current polls say.  Even if National can govern alone (which will be close), they will invite others into a coalition.  Key is clever like that.
  4. Obama will (re)win the US Presidency in 2011.  It will get nasty.
  5. The NZ dollar will stay high (around 80c against the US $) for most of this year.  But drop back to 70-75c by late 2011/early 2012
  6. The US economy will crap itself in 2013.  Finally.  China will help.

The above predictions were written on 27th July 2011.

Update 4 August 2011: The 2011 Rugby World Cup final will be between Australia and NZ.  If NZ make it to the final, they will win it.  South Africa will bomb out early.

Black and White Version: My predictions for 2011 and beyond.  Who knows if I am right or not.  Time will tell!

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graph

Tech companies – the round up

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Another straight to the point, black and white post here.

My views on the current, and future prospects, of various tech companies.

Short Term Medium/Long Term (3-5 years)
Apple Excellent Excellent
Google Excellent Excellent
Microsoft Good Poor.
Nokia Average Poor
Rim (aka Blackberry) Good Poor Average
IBM Good Excellent Very Good
FaceBoook Good Good – Very Good
Twitter Average ??

I’ll give just brief further comments on the mobile device space:

  • I think Google’s OS (Android) will be the biggest by far in 5 years (sooner), with over 50% market share,
  • Apple will be the most profitable by far, and maintain the position as the biggest selling single phone of any supplier.
  • Microsoft and Nokia combined will have less market share in this space than Apple or Linux presently do in the PC space (less than 10% combined) – they are dead long term in this market.
  • Rim (blackberry) will maintain their market share for now (give or take a few %), but long term they will be a niche player.

I also think Microsoft will go after (ie battle) Google more than it will Apple.  It’s lost the war with Apple (or more to the point, they aren’t on the same battle field).  Microsoft have two main resources – CASH, and their huge user base.  Let’s see if they can do anything with that.  There is hope for Microsoft, because unlike Rim and Nokia, they have FAR wider base of products than just the mobile device space.  But that would involve a whole change for the company – and actually get innovative again.

Black and White Version: Many current market leaders (aka Google and Apple) will continue to be strong.  Others, like Microsoft are long term dead-ducks.

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cost of products

Price of iPhone 4 in New Zealand UPDATED

4

Let’s cut to the chase here: The price of most products has NOTHING to do with the cost price, the exchange rate or the relative cost of alternatives (although if you want a good analysis of some of these see iPhonewezealnd’s iPhone 4 price estimate).   The product’s cost is irrelevant too (iPhone 4 estimated production cost found here, which they estimate to be US$188 or NZ $270 or so). It has EVERYTHING to do with what the customer will pay.

We already know the price of the 3Gs on launch in NZ:  NZ$1149 for 16GB and NZ$1349 for 32GB (although you can buy an 8GB 3Gs for $899 at the moment) .  Since the iPhone 4 comes in the same sizes (16/32GB), my simple estimate of the iPhone 4 price is the same – $1149 for the 16 GB and $1349 for the 32GB.

UPDATE 27th July 2010: The 16GB pricing has been released as $1099 ($50 cheaper than my prediction).  Still waiting on 32GB $.

Update 30th June 2010: 32GB now confirmed as $1299.   Looks like I was $50 out on that too :-)   Both are now available now from the Apple web site

Update 20 October 2011: The iPhone 4s is now out. My review for use in New Zealand is here.

Black and White Version: Price is determined the willingness of the consumer to pay far more than anything else.  Let’s see if I am right in this case.

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iSlate

Apple Tablet (iSlate anyone?)

0

The apple tablet is all but confirmed now.  For a quick recap of rumors up until now, visit this site.

I was wrong when I predicted it would be announced in 2009 and not 2010.

But …. here is my predictions from here about it from here:

  1. Like the iPhone, it won’t be revolutionary in any ONE thing, but the way we interact with it will take current technology and make it just “work” (aka how iPhone does sms text messages – seams so obvious to have a chat log thread).
  2. It will do three (maybe four) things quite well, but not as much as we might think.
  3. It will be a e-book reader (but think more than just “e-books” think any electronic documents)
  4. On the Operating System (OS) front, I still think it will be closer to OSX than it will be to the iPhone OS.
  5. It will have a sim slot for data connection, and of course wi-fi (n)
  6. It will play videos well.  It will have something new here.
  7. It will be 10″.  They may have a smaller 7″ version as well (maybe)
  8. It will be around $US 600 (but as usual be more expensive overseas, so in NZ expect around $NZ 1000 = $US 700/750)
  9. It will be announced in late Jan 2010, and made avail for sale March/April 2010.
  10. Oh, and I will probably get one :-)

Black and White Version: The Apple tablet will be less about WHAT it does, and more about HOW we interact with it.

Note: Image from www.islate.org

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crystalball

Some tech and finance predictions for 2009/10 made 26/11/09

2

Some new predictions made 26 Nov 2009:

  1. Fully electric cars will NOT be in any large scale production in 2010 (despite what the car manufacturers say)
  2. The current reserve bank OCR rate (2.5%) in NZ until March 2010.
  3. Banks will put rates up BEFORE #2 happens
  4. Apple will launch a new tablet in 2009 (not early 2010).  It will be a “surprise” only in so much that they will announce it via a press release and not a a major event

Black and White Version: Some stuff will be late, some will be early.  But mostly late.

Note: This post was actually made on 25 Jan 2010, by cutting and pasting the actual predictions text (word for word) from my Predictions Page. I did that to tidy things up. :-)

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crystalball

Some big predictions for 2010 and beyond made 11/5/09

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Predictions made 11 May 2009

Prediction: National will will the next election in NZ (likely to be 2011).

Prediction: The US economy will crap itself sometime in 2010/11

Prediction: The NZ dollar will appreciate against the US for the next 6 mths (give or take a few ups and downs).  Around 10c all in all.

Black and White Version: Some BIG predictions for my 1st predictions post.

Note: This post was actually made on 25 Jan 2010, by cutting and pasting the actual predictions text (word for word) from my Predictions Page. I did that to tidy things up. :-)

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